Somalia’s New Federal State Renews Scrutiny on Its Complex Politics & Electoral System

Hassan will now undertake the task of integrating the new state’s institutions into the federal system, a task that’s much, much easier said than done. Somalia’s federation-based government style, where state governments work in tandem with a central government, has been beset by a myriad of issues, including a lack of clarity about the delineation of responsibilities and constant power tussles rooted in decades of civil war, which can also be traced further back to pre-colonial, tribe-based biases.

The Northeastern State is now the sixth member state of Somalia’s federal government, following a breakaway from the self-declared, independent state of Somaliland. In early 2023, fighting broke out between the Somaliland army and forces allied with the Dhulbahante sub-clan for control of Las Anod, with the latter stating its preference to be part of the Somalian federation, rather than being governed by Somaliland.

Meanwhile, Somaliland declared its independence following the collapse of Barre’s dictatorship. For a few years prior, it sought secession from Somalia in an armed struggle that led to the deaths of tens of thousands in what is now known as the Isaaq genocide. Somaliland’s independence push was based on the argument that it was a former British colony and reserved the right to back out of the merger with the former Italian colony. The quest also came at a time when Barre’s dictatorial rule had grown more repressive, and Somalia’s economy was in decline.

Somaliland’s colonial-era boundaries included the Sool region, where the majority of its population belongs to the Dhulbahante sub-clan, which is part of the Darod clan. After years of dissatisfaction with involvement in national politics and latent disinterest in the breakaway state, citing Somaliland as largely serving the interests of the Isaaq clan, protests led to the Dhulbahante declaring itself to be part of Somalia’s federation.

The Northeastern state includes parts of the Sool, Sanaag, and Todgheer regions, previously known as SSC-Khatumo, as well as the Maakhir state area, and is now “fully backed by the federal government of Somalia,” according to Mogadishu-based cultural commentator Ali Ahmed. “The federal government is fully supporting with the necessities for the running of the state government.”

Speaking during the declaration in Las Anod, interior affairs minister Ali Yusuf Hosh stated that the federal government is “stepping up support designed to meet critical community needs and reinforce the operational capabilities of the nascent regional authority,” while emphasizing the importance of a shared approach under the federation system.

However, not all the involved parties in Somalia are pleased with the new federal state. Puntland, the oldest federal member state, has claimed the SSC-Khatumo region as part of its territory, citing the Darod clan kinship with the Dhulbahante. The Puntland government has also accused the Somalian federal government of creating the state as a way to sow division in service of its own agenda.

The relationship between the federal government and the Puntland government has been incredibly fraught over the years, with both sides fighting for power over who controls the oil-rich region’s resources, as well as divisions over the country’s political future.

Earlier this year, Puntland allied with Jubaland, another federal state, to oppose electoral reforms being proposed by Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud. Before the alliance, both states had cold relations, after Jubaland backed out of supporting Puntland state president Said Abdullahi Deni’s bid for the federal presidency. Both states are now allied, after Jubland president Ahmed Mohamed Islam opposed a federal proposal to extend the tenure of federal member state administrations, which clashed with Islam’s plan to seek a third term in office.

Puntland and Jubaland boycotted the National Consultative Council (NCC) summit last month, where the Northeastern State was made official. It was also at the summit that attendees signed an agreement calling for enhanced collaboration between federal states and the country’s electoral commission, in order to accelerate voter registration. However, without Puntland and Jubaland, the lack of a unanimous stance risks escalating tensions.

Both disagreeing states have united in opposing President Mohamud’s push for a One Person, One Vote (1P1V) system, a stance that has renewed the spotlight on the country’s complex political system. While critics of the proposed reform say it’s the president’s attempt at consolidating power, many Somalians are in favor of directly voting in their leaders, rather than the indirect system that’s currently in place.

“The citizens are fed up with living under anarchy for long, and many would want to have an electoral system where it’s one person, one vote, but the path for that is unrealistic,” Ahmed says. “Members of parliament are selected through the council of elders, and they then elect the president.”

Somalia’s last direct vote took place in 1969, and after decades of war and arguments following Barre’s death, it settled on the 4.5 system. In this system, an equal number of seats in parliament is allocated to the four main clan families — Darod, Dir, Hawiye, and Digil-Mirifle. Half the number of seats is allocated to the Bantu, Benadiri, and other minority clans. Clan leaders choose representatives who choose members of parliament; these chosen lawmakers then vote to elect the president.

This complex system, which only takes into account Somalia’s elite, has repeatedly shown cracks in the lukewarm association between federal states and the federal government. It’s also tied to the constitutional inadequacies related to “the architecture of the federation, which is still undefined,” according to Horn of Africa expert Matthew Bryden.

Somalia’s electoral and political system will continue to come under scrutiny by many Somalian citizens, but Ahmed cites the country’s decades-long instability and the federal government’s limited security reach as hindrances to any radical reforms. “Most parts of Somalia are not secured by the federal government, so it’s not able to have control of all its regions, so we’re all still waiting.”