South Africa Braces for Impact as Trump Modifies Import Tariffs for Dozens of African Countries

South Africa's 30% tariff is now the highest rate in Sub-Saharan Africa, while Lesotho's rate has been reduced from 50% to 15%. South Africa had been attempting to negotiate a substantial reduction in its initial 31% tariff, offering to purchase U.S. liquefied natural gas and proposing investments exceeding $3 billion in U.S. industries, like mining. A delegation led by President Cyril Ramaphosa went on a White House visit in May to discuss trade relations, but ended up being distracted by Trump's insistence on a white genocide, a false premise on which the U.S. has received white Afrikaner refugees from South Africa.

While Ramaphosa has stated that his administration will continue to negotiate with the U.S., the country's trade department has established an export support desk to "promote export diversification," according to its minister, Parks Tau. "The Desk will provide updates on developments and tailored advisory services to exporters on alternative destinations, guidance on market entry processes, insights into compliance requirements, and linkages to South African Embassies and High Commissions abroad."

In addition to South Africa, Algeria and Libya have also been imposed with 30% tariffs. Tunisia's tariff has been slightly reduced from the initial 28% to 25%. Angola now enjoys one of the largest reductions, with its new tariff set at 15%, down from 32%. Côte d'Ivoire and Namibia have both seen their tariffs decreased to 15%, while Nigeria's tariff has increased to 15%, up from the previous rate of 14%.

Addressing dignitaries and press in the Rose Garden of the White House, the American president held a cardboard chart of fourteen countries and the European Union, aka the “dirty 15,” alleged to have unfair trade practices with the U.S. South Africa was one of the countries on the cardboard, as its tense relationship with the Trump administration continues.

Trump unveiled a 31% tariff on South African imports into the U.S. That’s in addition to the 25% tariff on all auto imports, which will impact South Africa’s automotive industry, as cars are the country’s second highest exports to America. Similar to comments made about South Africa in recent months, Trump again stated that “many bad things are happening” in the Rainbow Nation, continuing with his crusade that the South African government is being cruel to its white minority population.

Trump stated that U.S. exports to South Africa face 60% duties, hence the need for a reciprocal 31% tariff. However, the methodology for arriving at those numbers is nebulous. “I’m not sure how they arrived at that number,” Dr. Mthokozisi Tshuma, an independent economic consultant, tells OkayAfrica. “He said it’s foreign trade barriers, right? The so-called barriers that he feels the U.S. encounters when it sends products to South Africa. He mentioned some [political] issues in that analysis of South Africa’s section, but I’m not sure where they got that 60% figure.”

While the tariffs on South African imports to the U.S. seem to have political markings, the rationale behind the 50% tariffs placed on exports from Lesotho is less clear. America is the second-largest trade export partner for Lesotho, and trade from the U.S. contributes to about 10% of the landlocked southern African country’s economy. The cost of the high tariff rate could be passed on to American consumers, which could affect demand for exports from Lesotho.

Lesotho’s main exports are diamonds and textiles, with the latter including jeans, knit suits, and the golf polo shirts Trump himself loves. Last year, Lesotho’s exports to the U.S. were worth over $237 million, while its imports from America were estimated at $2.8 million. Perhaps the Trump administration focused on America’s trade deficit numbers with Lesotho to reach that incredulously high tariff rate. It could also be a reaction to backlash towards his comments about Lesotho as “a country no one has ever heard of.”

The arbitrariness of the tariffs slapped on African countries makes it impossible to generalize and reach a consensus reason. Other African countries hit with tariffs include Angola (32%), Algeria (30%), Tunisia (28%), Côte d'Ivoire and Namibia (21%), Malawi (18%), Nigeria (14%), and many others.

“Some of the highest rates have been levied on smaller countries with goods from southern Africa, including Madagascar and Botswana at 47% and 38% respectively,” Tshuma says. “So you look at Lesotho, a small country that does a lot of trade with the U.S., and you know it’s going to have negative implications.”

South Africa, Lesotho, and Madagascar are among African countries that have enjoyed smooth trade dealings with the U.S. under the Africa Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) since it was signed in 2000 by former American President Bill Clinton. Under AGOA, included African countries were allowed to export specific items to the U.S. without tariffs. AGOA is up for renewal in September; however, Trump’s new tariffs mean that the deal could effectively be shuttered.

There’s also uncertainty as to how African countries respond to these tariffs going forward. While world leaders have roundly criticized Trump’s announcements and stated readiness to issue retaliatory tariffs, several African countries have stopped short of issuing any strong statements. While South Africa’s presidency called the tariffs “punitive,” Kenya’s foreign affairs sees some positivity in being handed one of the lower tariff rates at 10%.

“I think the way African countries organize, I don’t see them imposing reciprocal tariffs on the U.S.,” Tshuma says. “Other countries have said they’ve been expecting the tariffs, so they’ve been preparing for that. But amongst African countries, I don’t see countries having a response except trying to engage the U.S. individually. I’m not sure they are in a position to engage as a bloc; there’s not much leverage or bargaining power to say to the U.S., ‘If you impose this, we can do a similar thing to you.’ So I think they will adopt a ‘wait and see’ attitude, or they might also try to engage the U.S. individually.”