The Ballot Didn't Tell the Whole Story in Africa's Year of Elections

South Africa can be considered the sixth country. The African National Congress (ANC) failed to win 50% of parliamentary seats for the first time since South Africa became a democracy three decades ago, forcing the party to form a unity government with other opposition parties. Although the ANC retains a majority in parliament and leads the government, losing an absolute majority mirrored many South Africans' mounting annoyance with the ANC.

These results indicate that elections in African countries reflect the people's will, but it's not as straightforward. For example, in Senegal, where Bassirou Diomaye Faye became the youngest elected president on the continent, citizens had to fight – quite literally – for their right to elect their new leader after former President Macky Sall attempted to delay the election by more than six months from the original schedule.

In Mauritius, the opposition coalition Alliance of Change won the parliamentary majority partly because of public irritation with the former government's imposition of a social media blackout. The government enforced the brief ban after leaked social media recordings revealed alleged wiretapped conversations between high-level officials.

Mauritius and Senegal are two of the stronger democracies in Africa, and, remarkably, pre-election controversies didn't affect their abilities to hold free and fair elections where opposition parties won.

Last year, the 15 major African elections showed incumbent governments' determination to maintain power at any cost. In Mozambique, after ruling party Frelimo's candidate Daniel Chapo was declared winner, citizens protested en masse, facing violent responses from security forces. Frelimo, which has ruled since independence in 1975, had grown unpopular, especially among youth frustrated with deteriorating living conditions.

Opposition candidate Venacio Mondlane continues to claim victory amidst significant support and escalating crises. EU observers noted problems with vote counting transparency. Similar scenes unfolded in Comoros, where President Azali Assoumani's fourth-term victory sparked protests over alleged fraud, with only 16% voter turnout indicating low public trust.

Assoumani has been accused of manipulating institutions to remain in power; in 2018, a controversial national referendum removed presidential term limits, enabling him to stay in office indefinitely. In several other countries, it's a common theme for incumbents and ruling parties to turn democratic systems and processes into tools for personal gains.

A highly controversial bill allowing parliament to elect the president and granting executive powers to the leader of the parliamentary majority passed in Togo in late April. This enables President Faure Gnassingbé, who has been in office since 2004 and is unpopular among many citizens, to remain in a ceremonial role as President for six more years after his term ends in 2025. Alternatively, he could retain executive power as the President of the Council of Ministers if his party retains the parliamentary majority – as it did in May amidst accusations of gross electoral fraud.

In Chad, Mahamat Idriss Déby went from junta leader to president following an election opposition parties say was riddled with electoral fraud and assault from state forces. Déby's win was unsurprising to observers, considering that he usurped power following the passing of his father, Idriss Déby, who ruled for 30 years. Also, his strongest opponent, Yaya Dillo Djérou, was killed in an armed attack suspected to have been carried out by state forces.

Of the several West and Central African countries where coups took place in recent years, Chad was the only country to hold elections. Guinea, Mali, and Burkina Faso had scheduled 2024 for their transition to democracy. However, the ruling juntas pushed back those plans, each citing security and the fight against insurgency as reasons to keep ruling.

South Sudan's interim government, led by President Salva Kiir, postponed general elections for the umpteenth time. The regime said it needed "additional time to complete essential tasks before the polls" and wasn't financially prepared to hold elections.

Guinea-Bissau cited lack of money as one of the main reasons for the indefinite postponement of legislative and presidential elections initially scheduled for late November 2024. The move came after President Úmaro Sissoco Embaló said he wouldn't run for a second term in office. However, Embaló has been ruling by decree since he dissolved the opposition-led parliament in December 2023, claiming that there had been a coup attempt – the same precedent he used in arresting several opposition leaders in 2022.

Kaeis carried out a self-coup in 2021 and ruled by decree until a new parliament was formed. Even with a new constitution, critics have said democratic institutions are far from autonomous. The silencing of opposition leaders marred the electoral process itself, and one of the presidential candidates was jailed and handed three prison sentences totaling 14 years for allegedly falsifying documents five days before election day.

In 2024, all incumbent presidents or parties had varying levels of controversy attached to their returns. Algerian President Abdelmadjid Tebboune's second term win with almost 95% of the vote was ridiculed by many Algerians online. Tebboune entered office following widespread protests against former long-term President Abdelaziz Bouteflika, but he's been accused of keeping the dictatorial system in place, repressing civil dissent, and targeting opponents. His reelection was expected, as most Algerians continued to boycott elections due to disillusionment with the establishment.

During protests against incumbent President Mohamed Ould Ghazouani's victory for a second term, the Mauritanian government temporarily cut internet services. Opposition candidate Biram Dah Abeid referred to the process as an "electoral coup." Although Mauritania's economy has shown slight improvement in the latter years of Ghazouani's first term—a trend expected to continue—half of the population is still experiencing multidimensional poverty. Also, the current administration's abysmal human rights record has done little to end the country's reputation as the last stronghold of slavery.

In Rwanda, Paul Kagame continued to climb the ladder of the longest-serving African leaders as he wrapped up his third seven-year term and began a new five-year term, made possible by term limit changes to the constitution. Regarded by Western critics as a benevolent dictator, Kagame has hit back by saying democracy is about freedom of choice, and Rwandans keep choosing him. However, opposition leaders have accused him of stifling dissenting voices and tightly controlling Rwanda's political environment.

Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah is set to become Namibia's first female president, ensuring that the ruling South West Africa People's Organisation (SWAPO) retains executive powers for another five years despite the party's plummeting popularity due to unchecked corruption and worsened cost of living. Nandi-Ndaitwah's win was marred by several electoral challenges, including the late opening of some polling stations, technical malfunctions, and ballot shortages. Opponents vowed to challenge the results in court.

The gross dissatisfaction with incumbents wasn't just an African thing; it was a defining part of the dozens of general elections worldwide in 2024. Similar to opposition wins in Botswana and Mauritius, the UK's Labour Party took over executive duties with a landslide parliamentary victory; Russian President Vladimir Putin's fifth-term win isn't unlike Kagame's win; protests against Mozambique's Frelimo is comparable to demonstrations in Venezuela after the announcement that Nicolás Maduro won a third term, despite allegations of wanton electoral fraud.

There are parallels between Donald Trump winning the U.S. presidential election and John Mahama's win in Ghana. Both candidates largely campaigned on the back of high inflation in their countries, while their aptitudes for creating excellent economic conditions during their first terms were far from stellar. "Voters don't like high prices," columnist John Burn-Murdoch recently wrote in a Financial Times column, explaining that Trump's win exists within a global framework where the aftereffects of the COVID-19 pandemic and shocks caused by the Russia-Ukraine war have caused prices to soar.

Ghanaian history and political science professor Samuel Adu-Gyamfi told OkayAfrica that the now-ousted New Patriotic Party's bid to retain power came on the back of "so many [failures] that they have rather attributed to macroeconomic instability [caused by] the Russia-Ukraine war and COVID-19 pandemic." Also integral are the widespread corruption allegations levied against the outgoing Ghanaian government and the increased brutal crackdowns on civil demonstrations.

The lack of modesty and competent economic foresight by leaders, as well as the eagerness to suppress protests violently without addressing citizens' concerns, are foundational to many Africans voting to oust incumbents – successfully or unsuccessfully. These patterns of leadership have led many Africans to deeply distrust their governments' commitment to public interests while maintaining no illusions about whether democratic elections truly reflect the people's mandate.

Last year's elections reiterated that Africans want better leaders and stronger institutions; maybe those in power will get the memo someday—hopefully sooner rather than later.